State Budget Outlook

The following information is from a Microsoft PowerPoint presentation from the Office of Management and Enterprise Services (OMES) that provides a multi-year analysis of the State of Oklahoma budget. View the PowerPoint presentation (.ppt, 4 s, 145 KB).

Slide 1

State Budget Outlook, Multi-Year Analysis
Office of State Finance
Nov. 1, 2012*
Shelly Paulk, Revenue Analyst

*To be updated upon release of official documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

Slide 2

Legend

• Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 through FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1 percent
• Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 through FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31 percent
• Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 8.22 percent) and ROADS increases (11 Session)
• Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 through FY-2012 Act - Normalized Ave. 2.97 percent

Slide 3

General Revenue Fund Sources, base on OMES Trend-Based Growth Projections (In Millions)
To be updated with December BOE Projections and Estimates

Fiscal Year 2012-Fiscal Year 2014

• Personal income tax - Average 3.0% growth
• Corporate income tax - Average 0.1% growth
• GP gas - Average 0.2% growth
• Sales tax - Average 4.0% growth
• Motor vehicle tax - Average 4.4% growth

Fiscal Year 2012 (Office of Management and Enterprise Services Actual Collections plus ROADS funding and OK Promise, less deferred gross production tax credits)

• Personal Income tax - $2,362.8
• Corporate Income tax - $343.4
• GP gas - $249.4
• Sales tax – $1,829.6
• Motor vehicle tax – $221.6

Fiscal Year 2013 (June BOE Estimate plus ROADS funding and OK Promise, less deferred GP tax credits)

• Personal income tax - $2,354.0
• Corporate income tax - $320.9
• GP gas - $188.4
• Sales tax - $1,924.3
• Motor vehicle tax - $228.4

Fiscal Year 2014 (OMES Projections Based on 10-Year Normalized Growth Rates plus OK Promise and additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credits Impact)

• Personal income tax - $2,462.1
• Corporate income tax - $413.4
• GP gas - $202.9
• Sales tax - $2,029.3
• Motor vehicle tax - $245.0

Fiscal Year 2015 (OMES Projections Based on 10-Year Normalized Growth Rates plus OK Promise and additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credits Impact)

• Personal income tax - $2,575.1
• Corporate income tax - $532.6
• GP gas - $219.0
• Sales tax - $2,140.1
• Motor vehicle tax - $262.8

Sources are shown as totals - Not reduced for OHLAP or ROADS funding, less deferred GP tax credits

FY-2013 through FY-2015 Average Growth Rates

• Personal Income tax – 2.9%
• Corporate Income tax – 17%
• Gross Production gas tax – (2.9%)
• Sales tax – 5.4%
• Motor Vehicle tax – 5.9%

Slide 4

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With Percentage of Change From Prior Year)
(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

To be updated with December BOE projections and estimates

• Fiscal Year 2010, (17.3)% - Actuals
• Fiscal Year 2011, 12.6% – Actuals
• Fiscal Year 2012, 10.6% - Actuals
• Fiscal Year 2013, 0.2% - Based on OMES June BOE Estimate Plus OK Promise & ROADS funding
• Fiscal Year 2014 6.7% - Based on OMES 10-Year Normalized, Trend-Based Growth Projections Plus OK Promise & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact
• Fiscal Year 2015 7.0% - Based on OMES 10-Year Normalized, Trend-Based Growth Projections Plus OK Promise Estimate & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact
• Fiscal Year 2016 7.6% - Based on OMES 10-Year Normalized, Trend-based Growth Projections Plus OK Promise Estimate & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact
• Fiscal Year 2017 8.0% - Based on OMES 10-Year Normalized, Trend-Based Growth Projections Plus OK Promise Estimate & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact